President Putin proved us all wrong. Again! No one seemed to be able to deduce why Putin placed Russian troops in Crimea, while having no wish of getting involved in an ultimatum. While the situation slowly advances until Sunday, when the referendum for the independence of Crimea will take place, I would like to present my reasoning and my explanations, about all of the actions as they happened. Overall, I believe, that I made the connection and I found the reasoning behind Russia’s actions. And it is shocking to say, that if I’m right, the the West hasn’t tried to do anything and will not try to, until Sunday, which will be a day that will be always remembered as a landmark of the history of our century. And I’ll shortly explain why.
So let’s begin by mentioning the facts that allowed me to connect the events, since the very beginning of this conflict:
1) Russia placed troops around Crimea and blocked all naval, air and later, land traffic from and towards Crimea.
2) Russia places a new government in the Crimean parliament.
3) A referendum is announced that will decide about the union of Crimea with Russia.
4) The troops have meanwhile blocked all of the Ukrainian army bases and all forms of entry into Crimea.
5) The West denounces the referendum as illegal, but can’t react or affect Crimea in the way in which they wish, due to the blockage by the Russian army.
And this is it until now. However, if one links the above events, he will be able to make a very educated speculation about the future. The referendum will happen, because any intervention from the West will be inhibited by the Russian army and any tension between a Western army and Russia could lead to an ultimatum! Thus, one can tell why President Putin followed these actions. He acted to keep Crimea under his full protection until the referendum was to take place. Given the unwillingness of nations to fight against Russia and that the majority of the population of Crimea is Russian, one can tell what will happen, because the west has no desire of a war with Russia.
To conclude that was my educated speculation but as I began “President Putin proved us all wrong” so he might do so now as well. Only time will tell and we will only know this Sunday…