How far can the situation in Ukraine go? Thoughts and Concerns
The situation in Ukraine seems to be pretty harsh at the moment. People are afraid of a civil war and Russia has placed troops in the country. However, this situation is much more than an “Ukrainian Spring”, like the ones in Libya, Syria and Egypt. Here the international effect of the situation is directly recognisable. This can be seen by the responses of various countries, such as Canada that recalled their ambassador from Moscow and said that they won’t be part of the next G8 in Sochi, just like France. But as I see it, the impact of this situation is much bigger than this…
So before stating why I’m concerned, let me present you 10 facts that will justify them first:
1) Russia invaded Ukraine and is controlling various strategic locations in the Crimea region. Some notable examples are the Sevastopol and Simferopol airports, as well as the Simferopol governmental building, where a new government was imposed by the Russians, who also raised the Russian flag. It goes without saying that this government isn’t recognised by Kiev.
2) 6000 troops and 30 armoured vehicles have already moved in and that number was estimated before Putin’s decision of sending troops to Ukraine was approved by the upper Russian Parliament.
3) The Russian fleet of Sevastopol, which under international laws has clear boundaries, has trespassed them numerous of times, according to Kiev.
4) Putin’s allowed to send troops to Ukraine as a whole, not just Crimea.
5) The Upper Parliament house of Moscow, requested from Putin to recall the Russian ambassador of the US, following Obama’s statements about the imposed costs of a potential decision of Russia to use troops in Ukraine.
6) The agreement of US and UK to protect the land borders of Ukraine.
7) Putin’s statement that Russia could aim nuclear missiles at Ukraine, if Ukraine was to become a member of the NATO.
8) Ukraine’s decision of having all units at an alerted state and the immediate training of the Ukrainian reservists, following the decision of Russia to use troops in Ukraine.
9) Kiev’s statement about the recent decisions of Russia being provocations of war.
10) The fact that Putin said that he has the right to protect the benefits of his country to Merkel and Obama to support his decision. Obviously, Putin has no wish to step down, despite the illegality of his decisions.
It’s obvious that Russia has a very strong interest in Ukraine. Should Ukraine join the EU and thus stop the treaties that allow the passage of Russian gas pipes, -that actually contribute towards a large portion of the Russian economy- Russia would find itself in front of a large economic crisis. Which is perhaps why these decisions were approved for Ukraine as a whole. Not to mention that without the Sevastopol fleet, Russia would have no power in the Middle East, as they wouldn’t have access there. Which explains the particular interest in the Crimea region.
And then there’s the international factor. While Obama and the international community seem to support the Ukrainian government, there’s always a hidden factor that justifies all of the emergency NATO conferences. And I believe this is the strategic position and the valuable resources of Ukraine that would greatly contribute towards the Western economies. Not to mention, it’s right next to Russia, so why wouldn’t the Western world want to have a strong influence on a country next to the Russian federation? In a sense it’s like a new Cuban crisis, just the other way round, which is next to Russia. Maybe this is the time that the Cold War expresses itself and it’s sad to realise this…
The next few hours will be crucial. Ukraine’s and Russia’s decisions do not only affect these 2 countries but the world as a whole, as it is obviously true that if the US, the UK and Germany get in, then the NATO gets in. And before the world will have even realised, there might even be a New World War!
Let me finish by a quote of Einstein, to show the danger of the following moments…
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
Albert Einstein
Well, actually the Ukrainians are experiencing a separation of “their” “country”. Perhaps I should say countries, since there is an obvious divergence between the “western” Kievan Ukrainians and the “eastern” pro-Russian “Ukrainians”. Except for the different language spoken by the above 2 groups, there are also many racial/cultural differences between them. Russians or Ukrainians of Russian origin, constitute a proportion of 58% roughly, of the whole Crimean population. Ukrainians are a minority in Crimea along with the Tatars and the Greeks of Mariopol, Sebastopol, Simferopol. In a nutshell, these are Russian lands, since the vast majority of the residents are Russians, speak the Russian language (not Ukrainian) and are adopt the Russian culture and religion (Eastern Orthodoxy instead of Catholicism). Clearly, historically and strategically, the Crimea region, was not given to the Russian Federation in 1991, so to hinder their economic development and power, so that another “Col War” is avoided and thus the US along with their (proxy) allies in the EU and NATO, be left the only real “players”.
Now, let us examine the whole situation in Ukraine. Clearly, the vox-populi-like “revolution”, was hugely backed by the US and their proxies, using any kind of extremists (Right Sector, Neo-fascists) available along with a massive pro-EU propaganda campaign, to “waken” the people of Ukraine. For obvious reasons, the US for the past couple of years, had been growing very suspicious and felt threatened towards a booming Russian economy and a possible collaboration of Russia-China. The latter will imminently be the world’s first economy, and the first already is the main supplier of gas and fuels to Europe. The legitimate president of Ukraine is Victor Yanukovich, elected by all democratic means. The US are unlikely to care about the consistency and homogenity and unity of the Ukrainians, since one of the first steps (backwards) taken by the new Kievan – US-backed government, was the abolition of the law of languages (not to mention the numerous “pogroms” around the country, where Greek and Russian minorities are harshly treated by neo-nazis and neo-Hitlerists). The US-EU interests in Ukraine are clearly geo-political and not so much economical. The US-EU interests were partly analysed above, however a concept of a pro-EU Ukraine, “frantic” to join the EU, could directly make EU look stronger and counteract with the dominant Euro-scepticists and also make Ukraine a US-proxy and along with the “democratic aid package” by the IMF and the US, deepen Ukraine into decades of Debtocracy (same as Greece).
Ukraine has a low level of developed industry and is practically a vast valley. Ukraine is the wheat supplier of all of Europe. Thus, their products are mainly agricultural (not very export-profitous). Victor Yanukovich, in my opinion had acted reasonably enough, so as to accept the Russian economic package, ie, a discount of roughly 1/3 in the price of imported Russian oil, aid package of 15 billion dollars in government bond purchases and an industrial cooperation between the two.
Now, the probable escalation leading to a WW3 seems unlikely, since the resources required for such an effort are enormous! Furthermore, assuming a Crimean Russo-US/EU war, China, Japan and several countries of the Middle-East (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Iran) could grow exponentially stronger after both the US and Russian have depleted their manpower and economic resources in such a war, which could be the downfall of the 2 global superpowers. Not to mention the total lose of US control in the Middle East, with Jihadists and Ghazi all over the place, fighting for the new Arabic Caliphate………
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