The situation in Ukraine seems to be pretty harsh at the moment. People are afraid of a civil war and Russia has placed troops in the country. However, this situation is much more than an “Ukrainian Spring”, like the ones in Libya, Syria and Egypt. Here the international effect of the situation is directly recognisable. This can be seen by the responses of various countries, such as Canada that recalled their ambassador from Moscow and said that they won’t be part of the next G8 in Sochi, just like France. But as I see it, the impact of this situation is much bigger than this…
So before stating why I’m concerned, let me present you 10 facts that will justify them first:
1) Russia invaded Ukraine and is controlling various strategic locations in the Crimea region. Some notable examples are the Sevastopol and Simferopol airports, as well as the Simferopol governmental building, where a new government was imposed by the Russians, who also raised the Russian flag. It goes without saying that this government isn’t recognised by Kiev.
2) 6000 troops and 30 armoured vehicles have already moved in and that number was estimated before Putin’s decision of sending troops to Ukraine was approved by the upper Russian Parliament.
3) The Russian fleet of Sevastopol, which under international laws has clear boundaries, has trespassed them numerous of times, according to Kiev.
4) Putin’s allowed to send troops to Ukraine as a whole, not just Crimea.
5) The Upper Parliament house of Moscow, requested from Putin to recall the Russian ambassador of the US, following Obama’s statements about the imposed costs of a potential decision of Russia to use troops in Ukraine.
6) The agreement of US and UK to protect the land borders of Ukraine.
7) Putin’s statement that Russia could aim nuclear missiles at Ukraine, if Ukraine was to become a member of the NATO.
8) Ukraine’s decision of having all units at an alerted state and the immediate training of the Ukrainian reservists, following the decision of Russia to use troops in Ukraine.
9) Kiev’s statement about the recent decisions of Russia being provocations of war.
10) The fact that Putin said that he has the right to protect the benefits of his country to Merkel and Obama to support his decision. Obviously, Putin has no wish to step down, despite the illegality of his decisions.
It’s obvious that Russia has a very strong interest in Ukraine. Should Ukraine join the EU and thus stop the treaties that allow the passage of Russian gas pipes, -that actually contribute towards a large portion of the Russian economy- Russia would find itself in front of a large economic crisis. Which is perhaps why these decisions were approved for Ukraine as a whole. Not to mention that without the Sevastopol fleet, Russia would have no power in the Middle East, as they wouldn’t have access there. Which explains the particular interest in the Crimea region.
And then there’s the international factor. While Obama and the international community seem to support the Ukrainian government, there’s always a hidden factor that justifies all of the emergency NATO conferences. And I believe this is the strategic position and the valuable resources of Ukraine that would greatly contribute towards the Western economies. Not to mention, it’s right next to Russia, so why wouldn’t the Western world want to have a strong influence on a country next to the Russian federation? In a sense it’s like a new Cuban crisis, just the other way round, which is next to Russia. Maybe this is the time that the Cold War expresses itself and it’s sad to realise this…
The next few hours will be crucial. Ukraine’s and Russia’s decisions do not only affect these 2 countries but the world as a whole, as it is obviously true that if the US, the UK and Germany get in, then the NATO gets in. And before the world will have even realised, there might even be a New World War!
Let me finish by a quote of Einstein, to show the danger of the following moments…
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”